Monday, July 18, 2011

Arizona Wireless Association -- July Industry Update 2011

We're burning up in the desert, but the market's not on fire...yet...


Having recently relocated to the Phoenix area, it was tremendously helpful to be able to meet with other folks in this market -- and it was great to get reacquainted with a good number of people I'd lost track of...


I'd like to thank AZWA for that, but even more, I think we should be thanking AZWA for some much needed optimism this summer.


I thought the most important impact of the industry update was to hear from the industry sector that we most certainly will be finding a silver lining to this summer's sputtering, on-again, off-again work flow.  Nobody's crystal ball is clear enough to tell when that relief will come (many are hoping Sprint will usher that wave of change in) -- but given the information we received last week, from spectrum use and auctions, to finances and investment in the sector, to even the Fed's initiatives to bring broadband connectivity to more of the US, one had to leave the room at least hoping that some of that inertia would materialize into work on the front line.


One thing's for sure, change will come, and it will come often to this industry...I'm hoping for sooner rather than later, but some believe that a few major issues will need to clear before the market gets rolling:
  • How LightSquared fares with the GPS tuner/filtering issue will have impact, especially given the deals/partnerships that are now in place...and Ted Abrams has a great question that pushes past the towers and the interference they may create (terrestrial radio system interference question now being investigated with the FCC) -- what about the handsets that will be communicating with those terrestrial system towers? -- basically 1 Watt broadcasting devices sitting right on top of the GPS receivers in people's cars...?  How do you fix that...?  If the answer is to build better tuners into the GPS equipment, you're going to see a lot of conflict over that...
  • The TMob / AT&T merger will have impacts we'll see that roll through for several years -- anyone remember VZW / AllTell...?  It looks though, that the demand for data service is going to drive the creation of more wireless infrastructure, and that soon the public will have to face the notion that wireless sites must be closer if good 4G service and battery life are to be expected.  The infrastructure industry's been saying more sites are needed since I got into this game, and given the demands of the new technology and services, that's not changing anytime soon.  The challenge for deployment will remain where it always has -- with the local zoning and permitting laws...
  • It also looks like President Obama and the FCC are pushing the Broadband Initiative forward, and that will be a healthy thing for America -- currently (from a national perspective) our service is less than sterling.  Although I haven't seen strong research on the impact of broadband connectivity to our economy, we did get some information from the presentation last week -- and I think we need to see more.  If localities actually understood how critical this connectivity was to their local economies, they would be planning for it's expansion and development differently.  There's hope that the state information technology agencies will help localities understand those linkages and take steps to change their approach -- but this is an information gathering and advocacy effort that will take years, especially in light of the magnitude and severity of other stressors our local governments are currently facing.  I am cautiously optimistic on this though, as usually, when the markets slow down, local governments turn towards examining their internal processes and the regulations they have imposed on development -- now may be a good time for this issue to surface in those localities that are able to look forward.
So Kudos to the AZWA and the summer's update -- and to the tenacity of the industry sector in this market -- I'm sure with all this heat, sooner or later the market will warm up!


RES