Meanwhile, back at the ranch...

This summer, it seems, is going to be a "hunker-down and see what happens" kind of affair...I've been collecting a few articles, and it's hard to see how the Phoenix market is going to move much this year, given recent events.  In fact, I've been absent from the blog, waiting, to try and see which direction things were going in, to try and get a post together, and I finally realized -- there's so much change happening, it seems impossible to get a sense of direction right now, so why try?

Starting with LightSquared's abrupt halt to production in Phoenix at the beginning of the year, and now T-Mob's pending merger under consideration, infrastructure production activities in the Phoenix market, at least, seem to be slowing or pausing... presumably with folks waiting to see what happens.  This doesn't seem to be the model for the other large MSAs and I can't figure out why the 5th largest market in the US seems to be stalling...unless it has something to do with the larger economy and general market here, which does seem to be suffering.

Let's start with LightSquared -- although the GIS frequency issue still hasn't been resolved, they have been inking deals with lots of folks, and contemplating an IPO...and one must guess at least that if they overcome the frequency conflict issue, those deals (and the creation of the infrastructure to service them) will become a reality...

If LightSquared does succeed in its ambitious plans, the upside for consumers could be huge. As the wireless industry consolidates with big players gobbling up smaller providers, such as with AT&T's purchase of T-Mobile, LightSquared offers smaller wireless operators a chance to compete. It also provides new entrants in the wireless market a chance to come up with new business models that could change how consumers access wireless broadband services.

Read more: http://news.cnet.com/8301-30686_3-20055922-266.html#ixzz1LDnLaPE4

I wonder if Clearwire's recent moves foreshadow the anticipation of LightSquared succeeding and working with Sprint, or if it's a cash strapped company looking to hedge it's bets for survival in a "Post AT&T/T-Mob merger market" (or maybe both?).  I'm also thinking that the deal between LightSquared and Sprint has to be a solid benefit for both -- since LightSquared could use help with the terrestrial infrastructure on the front end.

I also wonder to what degree the FCC and the fed want to see LightSquared succeed -- and is it possible that the President's initiative to increase connectivity across the nation (and maybe the FCC's spectrum plan) plays a role in that?

There's no question that the AT&T / T-Mob merger is a huge vector in the sector (sorry, couldn't help that).  There are as many Pros out there as Cons -- but I think the question is, to what degree would the FCC require divestitures (See Jonathan Kramer's article here), and how will they affect the market...what kind of opportunities will arise there?  Folks in the sector will remember the wave of decommissions after the last round of large consolidation (A' la Alltel) -- Would we see that again, and if so, would the opportunities created in FCC mandated divestitures re-claim some of those lost infrastructures?

Ironically, we're still seeing an increase in market penetration and in data use...even though we've witnessed the beginnings of the end of the unlimited data plans...and even in the open source world of Android, we're beginning to see carrier restrictions on tethering.  Verizon's iPhone launch, and Sprint's modest gains all speak to continued infrastructure growth, and it's also interesting to see the blending of the laptop and tablet format, which might just catch on...and generate serious data demand...but for now we seem to be in that awkward, pre-moment moment...

And, here in Phoenix, back at the ranch, all is quiet (too quiet), and we're waiting...

RES